As we speed our way towards the opening kickoff of the 2023-24 NFL regular season, it’s time to stack up where the league’s head coaches are entering the year.
For sixth-year Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, the early returns through four seasons with the team have been a mixed bag.
While Vrabel has led the Titans to three playoff appearances and one AFC Championship game appearance (to go with a .585 winning percentage in 82 NFL games), the Ohio native’s record against the spread hasn’t been so rosy.
That’s because Vrabel’s ATS mark (44-41-2, or 51.8%) ranks in a tie for 17th (alongside Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs) among NFL head coaches, behind Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers (52.1%).
BetTennessee.com is always on the best TN sportsbooks mindset, so we utilized data from TeamRankings.com to gather every active NFL head coach’s record ATS, dating back to 2003 when data was made available. We did not include records from interim stints.
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Best NFL Head Coaches Against The Spread
Below you'll find a chart of NFL head coaches and how they perform against the spread. Where does Mike Vrabel land?
| Team | Coach | Years Active | ATS Record | Cover Pct. |
| Giants | Brian Daboll | 1 | 14-5 | 73.7% |
| Lions | Dan Campbell | 2 | 23-11 | 67.7% |
| Bengals | Zac Taylor | 4 | 48-28-2 | 60% |
| Packers | Matt LaFleur | 4 | 42-29 | 59.2% |
| Patriots | Bill Belichick | 28 | 204-148-9 | 58% |
| Cowboys | Mike McCarthy | 16 | 155-119-6 | 56.4% |
| Chargers | Brandon Staley | 2 | 19-15-1 | 55.9% |
| Bills | Sean McDermott | 6 | 55-44-7 | 55.6% |
| Dolphins | Mike McDaniel | 1 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| Broncos | Sean Payton | 15 | 140-115-6 | 54.8% |
| 49ers | Kyle Shanahan | 6 | 57-49-1 | 53.8% |
| Seahawks | Pete Carroll | 17 | 118-104-7 | 53.2% |
| Ravens | John Harbaugh | 15 | 132-119--11 | 52.6% |
| Rams | Sean McVay | 6 | 54-49-5 | 52.4% |
| Commanders | Ron Rivera | 12 | 102-93-7 | 52.3% |
| Steelers | Mike Tomlin | 16 | 138-127-10 | 52.1 |
| Chiefs | Andy Reid | 24 | 180-167-6 | 51.8% |
| Titans | Mike Vrabel | 5 | 44-41-2 | 51.8% |
| Panthers | Frank Reich | 5 | 38-36-3 | 51.3% |
| Jaguars | Doug Pederson | 6 | 52-52-1 | 50% |
| Eagles | Nick Sirianni | 2 | 18-19-1 | 48.7% |
| Raiders | Josh McDaniels | 3 | 21-24 | 46.7% |
| Falcons | Arthur Smith | 2 | 15-18-1 | 45.5% |
| Browns | Kevin Stefanski | 3 | 23-29 | 44.2% |
| Bucs | Todd Bowles | 5 | 31-44-7 | 42.6% |
| Vikings | Kevin O’Connell | 1 | 7-10-1 | 41.2% |
| Jets | Robert Saleh | 2 | 14-20 | 41.2% |
| Saints | Dennis Allen | 4 | 21-31-1 | 40.6% |
| Bears | Matt Eberflus | 1 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
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The spread has been a challenge for Coach Vrabel and we expect the Titans playoff chances to remain fairly low throughout the season.
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How Vrabel Ranks Compared To His Peers ATS
Vrabel’s run in Nashville has seen the first-time NFL head coach soar past his brethren in the AFC South more often than not.
Between his three division titles and two playoff wins during his tenure in Tennessee and a highlight quality series of wins over the last five years, the highs have been lofty for Vrabel with the Titans.
Still, the old adage that “good teams win, while great teams cover” appears to have caught up with Vrabel, as he’s barely broken a 50% cover percentage with the franchise, showing how thin the margin for error has been in Nashville over the last half-decade.
For those looking ahead, it seems like Vrabel’s best days with the Titans might be in the past, as oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook Tennessee have the club at +900 to win the AFC South in 2024 (ranking last in that category).
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